Explanations, Hypotheses, and Research Design

Explanations, hypotheses, and research design are important steps to follow in doing political analysis. They represent the logical steps that should be followed in research, moving from a larger idea down to a more specific and detailed test to support that idea.

Explanations are the creative side of political research. A researcher notices an interesting variable and asks himself, "Why is this variable like this?" The answer (or answers, since people explain things in many different ways) that he comes up with to this question is his explanation of the variable. Explanations involve a cause and an effect. The researcher provides a detailed description of exactly how the cause (the independent variable) creates differing effects on the dependent variable - the explanation asserts a causal relationship. Explanations also answer the question, "What else should I find when doing this analysis?" An explanation is usually very complete and detailed with what we expect to find and the reasoning why we expect it to be that way.

From an explanation we can create a hypothesis, a single testable statement that describes a causal relationship between variables. In a hypothesis, the variable that is the cause of the relationship is the independent variable and the variable it affects is called the dependent variable. A good hypothesis is clear and specific about the units of analysis being studied, specifies the direction of a relationship, and is clear about which variable is the dependent and which is independent. An example of a good hypothesis is:

"In comparing nations, those who have more political freedom will have a higher GDP than will those nations with less political freedom."

A bad hypothesis would be:

"There is a relationship between a nation's GDP and political freedom."

This statement doesn't explain the direction of the relationship, or tell us which is the independent and dependent variable.

After you have created a good hypothesis, the next step is to come up with a research design. A research design is the set of procedures that you want to use to test your hypothesis. Included in research design is choosing variables to represent your concepts (operationalizing), choosing the appropriate statistical tests for your data, and making controlled comparisons.
-Randy Owen